Following unsuccessful negotiations with Iran, the United States implemented significant measures on Monday by imposing a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for the global energy market.
Experts caution that the intricate nature of the strait and potential repercussions for U.S. interests may render a complete blockade difficult to maintain. However, this bold step risks further destabilizing the global economy and could escalate tensions in the region.
U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that the U.S. would block any vessels attempting to navigate the Strait of Hormuz. Subsequently, U.S. Central Command confirmed that military forces would enforce a blockade on all maritime traffic entering or exiting Iranian ports starting Monday at 10 a.m. Eastern Time (1400 GMT).
According to Trump’s directive, this blockade will apply equally to vessels from all nations, affecting all Iranian ports along the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.
By Monday afternoon, the blockade was officially in place.
During a press conference after the blockade’s announcement, Trump warned that the U.S. military would take decisive action against any Iranian ship approaching the blockade zone in the Strait of Hormuz.
This blockade further complicates a vital shipping route already strained by the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict.
The Iranian semi-official Tasnim news agency criticized the U.S. blockade, describing it as a reckless escalation that threatens to suffocate the global economy, with American consumers likely facing the greatest impact.
Experts contend that while the United States aims to pressure Iran through this blockade, achieving a complete blockade may prove neither practical nor sustainable.
Saudi researcher Abdulaziz Alshaabani noted that the U.S. may enhance its naval presence, increase monitoring and inspection activities, and possibly impose selective restrictions on specific vessels. However, he emphasized that a comprehensive naval blockade would likely be ineffective due to the complexities of maritime routes and competing international interests.
Echoing this sentiment, Mohammed Al-Jubouri, a professor at al-Iraqia University in Baghdad, stated that Iran does not need to confront the U.S. Navy directly to undermine the blockade. Instead, Tehran could employ tactics such as fast-attack craft, naval mines, and proxy attacks to turn the blockade into a prolonged conflict.
Advisor Abu Bakr al-Deeb from the Cairo-based Arab Center for Research and Studies warned that a complete blockade could backfire on U.S. interests. He argued that while the U.S. could impose temporary or partial control, establishing a stable, long-term blockade would entail significant political and economic challenges.
The potential consequences of this blockade extend far beyond U.S. borders. Al-Deeb emphasized that the global economy, particularly in Asia and Europe, would experience immediate and severe repercussions.
Since the onset of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict on February 28, Brent Crude oil prices have surged, exceeding $120 per barrel by early April. Jorge Montepeque, managing director at Onyx Capital Group, predicted that oil prices could soar to $150 per barrel if the U.S. blockade remains in effect.
Moreover, the blockade heightens the risk of renewed hostilities between Washington and Tehran, jeopardizing a fragile ceasefire established just last week. Al-Jubouri noted that the U.S. stance on navigation in the Strait of Hormuz suggests a willingness to use these tensions as a pretext for further military actions.
In response to the blockade, Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) pledged to unveil new military capabilities if tensions with the U.S. and Israel persist. IRGC spokesperson Hossein Mohebbi stated, “We have not yet deployed our full capabilities, and if the conflict continues, we will reveal capabilities that the enemy has yet to comprehend.”
