Raila Odinga’s exit from the political scene is a heavy blow to many, but none feel it more than those who built their political careers around attacking him. For years, especially in the Mt. Kenya region, some leaders found comfort and attention by mentioning or insulting Raila at rallies. Now that he’s gone, Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and his allies have a problem—they must find a new person to target.
Politics in the mountain will not be the same again. Even former President Uhuru Kenyatta, once written off, still has a voice that carries weight. In the days ahead, it might even be easier for Kikuyus to trust Uhuru again than Gachagua. The irony is that Uhuru was the one who urged them to follow Raila. He constantly referred to him as “huyu mzee” because he saw Raila as the surest shortcut for their community to remain close to power.
Uhuru knew Raila was too old to seek a second term. That’s how the famous “Mandela Moment” was born—a transition deal disguised as statesmanship. And now, looking back, it’s clear that if Raila had stepped aside earlier, Martha Karua might have easily become president. But Gachagua had his own plans. He tightened his grip on Mt. Kenya politics, ignored advice to form a regional party, and dismissed anyone who tried to reason with him.
The mountain has never had a leader like Gachagua. From Jomo Kenyatta to Mwai Kibaki to Uhuru Kenyatta, the region’s past leaders treated their own with some level of courtesy. Gachagua, on the other hand, forces his will on people and sidelines them from the “fat oil” they are used to. Soon, one by one, they will walk away and leave him standing alone like an abandoned District Officer.
Luo Nyanza Without Baba
In Luo Nyanza, Raila’s absence has left a different kind of confusion. Many leaders built their survival on the slogan “wadhikonyo baba lweny malo”—we stand with Baba even when there’s no war. Before Raila took his last breath, they already knew he wouldn’t be on any ballot. To secure their turf, they started using Gachagua’s name as a scarecrow, branding anyone who dared challenge them as a sympathizer of Raila’s “enemy.” We saw this tactic used against people like Philip Aroko.
Now that Baba rests, the truth is simple: there’s no more enemy. Agwambo’s journey has ended. From here on, every leader will have to stand on their own work and record. Some have already started rushing to take photos with Mama Ida Odinga, hoping to use those pictures during future campaigns. But they forget that public sympathy fades quickly. After nine days, something new will dominate the headlines, and those photos will be forgotten.
Storm in ODM
Inside ODM, trouble is brewing. The big question is who takes over now that Raila is gone? Not many will be comfortable with Oburu Odinga as party leader. Only a few loyalists still believe the family holds the magic key to ODM’s future.
When Raila left for the AU job, he appointed Prof. Anyang’ Nyong’o as acting leader. He avoided people like Arati, Nassir, and Osotsi because he didn’t trust their ambitions. So why is Oburu now the one taking charge instead of Nyong’o? It confirms what many have long suspected: ODM is more of a family business than a democratic party.
This will not end quietly. Expect breakaway factions—ODM Reloaded, ODM Lemon, ODM Original, ODM Asili. James Orengo and Otiende Amollo won’t allow John Mbadi or Gladys Wanga to dominate Central Nyanza politics. They might even drift toward Kalonzo Musyoka, assuming the “watermelon” doesn’t cross over to Ruto’s side. Babu Owino will likely chart his own path, while Mbadi will do all he can to keep Wanga under his influence.
The question everyone should be asking is: are Luhyias, Kisiis, Maasais, Turkanas, and Coastal communities ready to rally behind another Luo party leader? Even Oparanya might start to wonder if his time in ODM is finally over.
The End of an Era
Hon. Junet Mohamed faces a tough battle in Suna East. Without Raila’s shadow, he will have to reconnect with his people directly. Shakir Shabir, too, will need to return to the grassroots if he hopes to stay relevant.
In truth, only a handful of ODM MPs are likely to survive the next election. You can already see the difference between those who are genuinely mourning Raila and those who only cry when the cameras are rolling.
Agwambo is gone. And with him goes a political era built on charisma, loyalty, and symbolism. What comes next will separate leaders from opportunists, and those who served from those who simply survived on Raila’s name.
*****
Amollo, stand firm like the rock of Suba. Agwambo is gone, but what he left behind is unity and friendship. Stay steadfast.
