The recent utterances by Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leadership that there will be zoning in ODM’s strongholds has left a bitter taste in the mouth of many people, especially those with intention to contest political seats with the party as their political vehicle to get power.
I think it’s going to be more suicidal for any kind of zoning for ODM, anywhere in Kenya, than when it was being practiced when Raila was around—when he was pulling political strings at will. This is going to be a bitter gal because it wasn’t easy even for baba himself… How much diffult will it be for the current ODM leadership, a leadership that’s somewhat the pale shadow of its former self?
There are a number of reasons that inform my reasoning. To start with, no one is Raila. Raila was Raila, but Oburu is not Raila. Jakom had built a political monster in ODM that conquered the entire country, save for a few pockets in Central Kenya which was due to tribal arithmetics, and some traditional oaths taken in 1969.
That’s is exactly what we witnessed in 1997 politics… Apart from that, ODM in its prime would shake the entire Kenya’s politico.
My second reason has to do with Raila’s sunset days in Kenyan politics. Truth be told, in the last two general elections, jakom’s grip on Luo politics had started to get a beating. This was attributed to his insistence on zoning Luo Nyanza, Western, Coast and Nairobi, for his political expediency. Although the zoning used to work in his favour, it had started to deter other potential leaders from ODM. That’s how we ended up with parties like David Ochieng’s MDG in Ugenya. It’s also the reason why we also had a Wiper MP in Alego Usonga a few years ago.
I’ll, nevertheless, gainsay the stale reasoning that Raila had hitherto lost several presidential elections because of zoning. Far from it. Jakom’s “losses” had never been due to political gerrymandering in Kenya. Not at all. Those “losses” were state-engineered — and it is painful that baba left us without being Kenya’s President, even if he was being treated as one, and enjoying privileges and trappings of power that befit a sitting head of state.
In the last general election, I clearly remember when Hon. Samuel Atandi, aka Atan Meli” was going against Kut K’Ochogo (forgive me if I got the name wrong) in Alego Usonga ODM primaries. And, from the history of party primaries, someone had to be short-changed between the two. When Hon. Atandi realised that he was going to be sacrificed in favour of Kut K’Ochogo, he started throwing barbs at ODM leadership, and how there’s no democracy in the party (this was before he would later be given the certificate to fly ODM’s flag in Alego Usonga constituency).
Why am I bringing all these? Political zoning will only be sweet when the blue-eyed girl in the whole matrix, not your opponents. So, anyone who is praising zoning in Luo Nyanza, the way Hon. Peter Kaluma is doing, is doing so because it currently places him above other contenders. Otherwise wait until Dr Oburu or the President settles for Mp Kaluma’s opponent for Homabay Town constituency, that’s when you’ll see the good lawyer see zoning as the Lucifer from the bottomless pit.
Although it used to work for jakom, zoning will hit ODM like thunder, and will leave their numbers in both houses, and even in County level, plummet steadily. Instead, giving everyone space to confront his or her political opponent will spice up the contest and rekindle the history of raw political contestations where the real winner walked home with a well deserved hunt.
