Luo Nyanza is bracing for significant political tension as rival factions of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), Linda Mwananchi and Linda Ground, prepare to hold simultaneous rallies on May 31, 2026.
These rallies serve as a critical test for the factions, particularly as Oburu’s camp faces increasing pressure regarding zoning. Meanwhile, President William Ruto’s UDA is determined to field candidates in ODM’s strongholds for the 2027 elections.
Oburu’s Linda Ground is losing ground as Edwin Sifuna’s camp gains momentum, according to recent polls. A Trends and Insights For Africa (TIFA) survey shows strong support for Linda Mwananchi, associated with Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, significantly outpacing the Linda Ground faction linked to Oburu Odinga.
The survey indicates that ODM supporters are leaning towards a more assertive, people-focused opposition, reflecting dissatisfaction with leaders seen as aligning with Ruto’s re-election efforts. TIFA’s findings reveal that the Sifuna-led faction enjoys 73% support among ODM supporters, compared to 24% for Linda Ground, with only 3% undecided.
“ODM supporters prefer a more independent opposition that prioritizes public interests and holds the government accountable,” the survey notes.
Oburu Oginga plans a major rally in Kisumu, while Sifuna’s camp will host a separate gathering in neighboring Homa Bay on the same day. These events will showcase each faction’s political strength in the influential Nyanza region, especially as Sifuna emerges as a potential presidential contender.
Polls suggest Sifuna, as a protégé of the late ODM leader Raila Odinga, could secure significant votes in Orange’s support areas nationwide.
The competition for Nyanza comes at a pivotal time for Ruto, who seeks to establish a presence in Luo Nyanza as part of his re-election strategy. However, the rising divisions within ODM may complicate Ruto’s plans, particularly as Mt. Kenya shows signs of discontent and defections from UDA.
This tension is especially pronounced in the Gusii region, where traditional political alignments are shifting. The rising influence of Jubilee deputy party leader Fred Matiang’i poses challenges for both ODM and UDA.
In response, the Oburu-led ODM faction is taking steps to solidify its support and prevent rival encroachments. ODM chairperson Gladys Wanga announced plans for a significant rally in Kisumu to demonstrate the faction’s strength in its political stronghold.
“They (Linda Mwananchi) have been boasting about their recent Kisumu rally. We will show the world how strong ODM is in Kisumu,” Wanga stated in Nyando.
As internal rivalries escalate, ODM leader Oburu Odinga is working to restore stability and strengthen the party’s influence in Western Kenya. He convened a leadership meeting that united factions linked to Cooperative CS Wycliffe Oparanya and Kakamega Governor Fernandes Barasa amid ongoing supremacy disputes.
The meeting included key figures such as Oparanya, Barasa, and several Members of Parliament. ODM leaders agreed to enhance the party’s structure in Kakamega, focusing on unity and coordination among local officials amid competing claims of leadership.
The discussions aimed to harmonize party operations, messaging, and grassroots mobilization in preparation for upcoming political events.
