As the African Union (AU) gears up for the election of its next Chairperson, Raila Odinga’s candidacy faces significant challenges, particularly from the Southern African Development Community (SADC). The recent statement from SADC emphasizes the need for a leader who can unite the continent, suggesting that support for Odinga may be limited among its member states. Here’s a look at the SADC countries likely to stand against Odinga if these sentiments hold true.
Angola: With its strong regional influence, Angola is known for aligning closely with SADC’s directives. The country may view Odinga’s candidacy as diverging from a collective vision focused on regional unity, making it less likely to support him.
Botswana: Botswana has maintained a cautious foreign policy, prioritizing stability and cooperation within southern Africa. Its government is likely to favor candidates who align with SADC values, potentially sidelining Odinga.
Comoros: As a smaller nation, Comoros may also follow SADC’s lead in endorsing a candidate perceived as more fitting for regional unity, making Odinga’s candidacy a less appealing choice.
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC): With its complex political landscape, the DRC might lean towards candidates who can foster collaboration within the region. If Odinga is seen as lacking consensus-building abilities, he may struggle to gain support here.
Eswatini: This kingdom’s traditional political structure could make it hesitant to back a candidate who does not align with SADC’s collaborative goals, further complicating Odinga’s path to securing votes.
Lesotho: Given its reliance on regional partnerships for stability, Lesotho could prioritize candidates who resonate with SADC’s vision, potentially ruling out Odinga.
Madagascar: Madagascar’s political dynamics often tilt toward regional alliances. If Odinga fails to secure SADC’s backing, this island nation may follow suit.
Malawi: Malawi’s leadership may favor candidates who embody SADC’s principles. If Odinga is seen as straying from this approach, support could dwindle.
Mauritius: This island nation’s government has historically aligned with SADC initiatives. A lack of endorsement for Odinga could stem from his perceived disconnect with regional aspirations.
Mozambique: Mozambique’s political landscape is heavily influenced by SADC’s goals. If Odinga does not align with their expectations, he may find little support.
Namibia: A nation committed to SADC ideals, Namibia might look to back a candidate who embodies unity and collaboration, making it less likely to support Odinga.
Seychelles: Given its strategic position in the Indian Ocean, Seychelles may prioritize candidates that align with SADC’s vision for regional stability, further complicating Odinga’s candidacy.
South Africa: As a major player in both SADC and AU politics, South Africa’s support is crucial. However, if SADC’s collective sentiment sways against Odinga, South Africa may follow suit.
Tanzania: Traditionally a key player in regional politics, Tanzania may opt for a candidate who aligns more closely with SADC values, especially if they perceive Odinga as lacking in consensus-building capabilities.
Zambia: Zambia’s leadership may prioritize candidates who promote unity within SADC. If Odinga is viewed as lacking in this regard, support could be limited.
Zimbabwe: With a government that often embraces anti-imperial rhetoric, Zimbabwe may be reluctant to support a candidate perceived as aligned with Western interests, which could include Odinga.
As the AU summit approaches, the positions of these SADC countries could significantly impact Raila Odinga’s chances of securing the necessary two-thirds majority. With the election set to be conducted via secret ballot, the dynamics of regional alliances will play a crucial role in shaping the future of African leadership. The stakes are high, and the countdown to the vote continues.
