Political analyst Herman Manyora has stated that it can only take state manipulation for the Democratic Party (DP) candidate Newton Karish to lose in the Mbere North elections.
During an appearance on his channel, Manyora voiced strong confidence in Rigathi Gachagua’s preferred candidate, Newton Karish. He claimed that only state intervention would lead to the musician-turned-politician’s defeat in the November 27 by-election.
“The former Deputy President’s candidate remains firmly positioned to win unless the exercise is manipulated against him, a move that would have substantial political repercussions”, said Manyora.
He emphasized that this is why the opposition must proceed with caution. “The DP candidate will win unless the election is heavily manipulated. Losing to Newton Karish requires a concerted effort, though such a defeat will send a strong message. The opposition should be particularly cautious,” Manyora said, explaining that a statement will soon be issued.
The united opposition’s challenge extends beyond mere victory. He stated that their candidates in both the Malava and Mbeere North regions, which are considered strongholds, need to achieve substantial leads in order to showcase their strength before the 2027 election against President Ruto.
A 60 per cent victory for the united opposition in Mbeere North would paradoxically benefit the president due to the area’s association with Gachagua. He likened the situation to the upcoming contest in Malava, where Seth Panyako of the Democratic Action Party will be running against David Ndakwa from UDA.
Narrow wins
The opposition would require 80 or even 90 per cent margins to effectively convey a message of dominance. A narrow win would be seen as a sign of weakness. A result of 60 or 65 percent for the opposition in Mbeere North should be a cause for concern, as such numbers would likely disappoint expectations in a region where they should secure nearly all votes.
Manyora argued that the opposition would need to achieve decisive victories in these constituencies if they wanted to demonstrate they had the majority, likening anything short of that to merely touching the tip of the iceberg. For him, a decisive victory for the opposition is required in order to prove that it can successfully challenge and defeat President Ruto in a national contest.
He warned that the opposition should stay vigilant, noting that these by-elections will give them a glimpse of the strategies they may encounter in 2027. He contended that if they struggle to navigate the political games typical in local elections, it will be significantly more challenging when the stakes increase in the general election.
The former deputy president, Rigathi Gachagua, has chosen to establish a base of operations in Mbeere North until his preferred candidate, Karish, achieves success on November 27. He has been constantly changing residences in an effort to promote his candidate’s campaign.
