Kenya Met Warns of Heavy El Niño Rains During October-December Season Met Warns of Heavy El Niño Rains During October-December SeasonKenya Meteorological Service Authority urges everyone to maximize productivity during the anticipated heavy rainfall linked to the El Niño phenomenon, which will influence the short rains season from October to December.
According to meteorological experts, climate variabilities driven by the El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, along with the evolving Indian Ocean Dipole, may result in significant rainfall across the country this season.
Charles Mugah, Deputy Director of the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA), emphasizes the importance of the short rains season in counties such as Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Marsabit, Isiolo, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, Kitui, Taita Taveta, Machakos, and parts of Kajiado and Tana River, where it contributes over 40% of the annual rainfall.
In the forecast presented at the 13th National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF13), meteorologists predict that rainfall will commence in counties including Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Busia, Baringo, Nakuru, TransNzoia, Uasin-Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, West Pokot, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, and Narok from September through January 2027.
The Deputy Director’s statement highlights that counties such as Nyandarua, Laikipia, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, Tharaka-Nithi, and Nairobi will begin to experience short rains from the 2nd to 3rd week of October until January next year. Meanwhile, Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado, Taita Taveta, and the inland areas of Tana River County will see the onset of rains in the 3rd to 4th week of October, lasting until January 2027.
The coastal regions, including Mombasa, Kwale, Lamu, Kilifi, and the Tana Delta, are expected to receive rainfall from the 2nd to 3rd week of October, continuing until the 1st to 2nd week of December. Additionally, counties such as Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, and Isiolo will also experience rains during the 2nd to 3rd week of October, lasting until the 1st to 2nd week of December.
This season may bring higher-than-normal temperatures across the country. Typically, the October-November-December season in Kenya is warm, with average temperatures ranging from approximately 17°C in Kericho and Uasin Gishu Counties to over 30°C in parts of Turkana County.
