Every five years, Kenyans convince themselves that the youngest voting bloc will finally liberate the country from its old demons.
In 2013, we placed that hope on the so-called digital generation. In 2017 and 2022, it was the millennials. Now, with 2027 looming, all eyes are on Gen Z. We are told they are bold, unafraid, and different. But are they really?
History says otherwise. When the votes are tallied, young people—just like their parents—tend to retreat into tribal cocoons. They might speak the language of change, tweet against bad governance, or march in the streets for accountability. Yet in the privacy of the ballot box, the overwhelming majority still vote for “our person.”
Kenyan politics is not driven by age or fresh ideas. It is driven by tribe. I would argue that at least 90 percent of our voting patterns are ethnic, cutting across generations. Only a thin slice of the electorate dares to put country above clan. And Gen Z, despite its swagger, is no exception.
Take 2027. If Fred Matiang’i runs, many Abagusii Gen Zs will not support him because he represents youth aspirations, but because he is “one of us.” If Wamunyoro clears the hurdles to contest, Mt. Kenya youth will fall in line behind him. If Babu Owino enters the race, Luo Gen Zs will brand it as a revolution against bad leadership, while in reality, they will be voting along familiar ethnic loyalties. Meanwhile, President William Ruto can safely expect the bulk of Kalenjin youth to back him without hesitation.
The uncomfortable truth is that Kenya’s youngest voters are not the saviors we imagine them to be. They are products of the same political culture—socialized in homes where tribe dictates political choice, and in communities where loyalty is valued above ideology. Gen Z may shout louder, dance differently, or mobilize faster online, but when it comes to the ballot, they rarely defy the gravitational pull of ethnicity.
Unless this country confronts the stranglehold of tribal politics, no generation will rescue us. Not Gen Z, not millennials, not the ones after them. The cycle will continue: we romanticize the youth as reformers, they return tribal chiefs to power, and five years later, we recycle the same naïve hope onto the next crop of “first-time voters.”
If we truly want change, it will not come from waiting for a generation to grow up and vote differently. It will come when Kenyans, young and old alike, decide that tribe is too small a coffin to bury the dream of a nation.
