KISUMU, Kenya – In a stark and provocative assessment, prominent Nairobi-based Senior Counsel Ahmednassir Abdullahi has declared the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) a mortally wounded party following the death of its iconic leader, Raila Odinga, asserting that its survival as a national political force is impossible.
In a lengthy social media post on his official X account, the lawyer argued that the party, which he described as Raila Odinga’s unparalleled “political behemoth,” cannot outlive its founder in Kenya’s tribal political landscape. He has called for an urgent strategic retreat to consolidate its base solely within Luo Nyanza.
The End of an Era, The Impossibility of Inheritance
Ahmednassir eulogised Raila Odinga as “the most consequential politician in Kenyan politics in the past three decades,” the nation’s “political centre of gravity.” However, he stated that the nostalgia and readings of Raila’s alleged “last wishes” at rallies are a “fool’s errand.”
“The endless nostalgic reminiscing about ODM’s great leader and the self-serving polemics… doesn’t help,” he wrote, adding, “It is very childish for any politician worth his salt to think that ODM will survive his demise. It will not!”
He dismissed the notion of a direct heir, stating bluntly: “Hon. Raila can’t be cloned. His political infrastructure can’t be inherited either. Not by his brother. Not by [his] widow. Not by his daughters.” He specifically noted that Raila’s elder brother, Dr. Oburu Odinga, “shares only a surname with Raila. Nothing else.”
A Bleak National Outlook and a Call for Strategic Withdrawal
The lawyer painted a grim picture of ODM’s prospects across its former strongholds:
· Nairobi: Predicted a 2027 “gladiatorial contest” between Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, with ODM facing “obliteration.” He suggested ODM’s only chance in the city would be to surrender to Babu Owino “on his terms.”
· Coast: Foresaw the region fragmenting, with Governors Abdulswamad Nassir (Mombasa), Gideon Mung’aro (Kilifi aligned with Speaker Kingi), and Salim Mvurya (Kwale) leading separate political blocs.
· Northern Kenya: Advised a full retreat, predicting that Governor Ahmed Abdullahi of Wajir’s efforts would be overwhelmed by United Democratic Movement (UDM) and United Democratic Alliance (UDA) forces.
· Western Kenya: The analysis notably skipped detailing ODM’s fate in Luhya land, stating “for obvious reasons.”
The “Zero-Sum” Prescription for Oburu Odinga
Ahmednassir’s central advice to Dr. Oburu Odinga, whom he sees as the party’s current custodian, is to abandon national ambitions and focus entirely on Luo Nyanza.
“Oburu will succeed beyond his wildest dreams if he wins everything in Luo Nyanza. That should be his brief and zero-sum game,” he stated. “Any seat he gets outside Luo Nyanza is [a] bonus to be kissed and adored.”
He concluded that Dr. Oburu’s mission should be to “oversee the political dominance of ODM in Luo Nyanza while undertaking an orderly retreat and evacuation from the rest of Kenya.”
Reactions and Implications
The analysis is expected to ignite fierce debate within ODM and across the Nyanza political scene. It challenges the prevailing narrative of party continuity and places immense pressure on the party’s leadership to either disprove this prognosis or enact the difficult strategic pivot it suggests.
As ODM prepares for its first electoral cycle without its founding father, Ahmednassir Abdullahi’s words present a sobering, if controversial, framework for the tough decisions that lie ahead.
This report is based on analysis published by Senior Counsel Ahmednassir Abdullahi on his official X account.
