Political analyst Herman Manyora has suggested that UNEP representative Ida Odinga would have been a more effective leader for the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) following the passing of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, rather than his brother, Siaya Senator Oburu Odinga.
During his podcast on August 14, 2026, Manyora expressed that ODM could have been in a stronger and more unified position under Ida’s leadership. He emphasized that even Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna would likely have remained with the party, highlighting that Sifuna would not have experienced the same conflicts with Ida as he has with Oburu.
“Had Ida taken the reins of ODM, the party could have thrived. There would have been no dissent. Who in this country would oppose her leadership?” Manyora remarked.
He further articulated that the ODM party is currently fragmented and has diminished in strength, pointing out that even Oburu Odinga faces significant challenges in seeking re-election as Siaya senator—an endeavor that would have been much more manageable had Raila been alive.
The leadership transition within ODM following Raila’s death has sparked considerable discussion among political analysts, with many scrutinizing its current direction and governance.
Former Agriculture Minister Kipruto Arap Kirwa recently criticized Oburu, asserting that the spirit of Raila Odinga now resides with Sifuna rather than with Oburu, despite their familial ties. Kirwa argued that while Oburu may bear a resemblance to his late father, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, he lacks the political acumen that defined Jaramogi’s legacy.
“I question whether Oburu ever fully supported Raila. He merely pretended to be aligned, while the essence of Raila’s leadership now belongs to Sifuna,” Kirwa commented, noting that Raila effectively took over his father’s political mantle and continued Jaramogi’s influence after his passing.
Siaya Governor James Orengo also weighed in, criticizing Oburu’s political role and claiming that he has typically operated in the background during crucial political discussions. Orengo stated that he, along with Raila and other senior politicians, were consistently present at Jaramogi’s side, positioning them as more capable of carrying forward his political legacy.
Referencing Oburu’s book, *In the Shadows of My Father*, Orengo argued that the title itself underscores Oburu’s tendency to remain in the background during significant political decisions.
The recent developments within ODM, particularly following Raila’s death and Oburu’s rise to leadership, have further illustrated what Orengo describes as Oburu’s lack of experience and ineffective leadership capabilities.
Kirwa’s comments are likely to fuel ongoing debates about who is best suited to uphold Raila’s political legacy as ODM navigates its leadership transition and prepares for the 2027 general election.
