When former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua warned the embattled Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) Secretary General Edwin Sifuna of his impending removal from the party, many viewed his statement as mere political bravado.
At that moment, it seemed like a display of brinkmanship within the ever-changing landscape of opposition politics. However, following Sifuna’s official ousting by ODM’s National Executive Council (NEC), Gachagua’s warning took on a more prophetic significance.
Although the Political Parties Disputes Tribunal temporarily halted the decision, this dramatic turn of events has ignited a vigorous charm offensive from leaders aligned with the emerging United Opposition. Their focus extends beyond Sifuna as an individual; they aim to challenge the faction within ODM that has resisted any reconciliation with President William Ruto and his United Democratic Alliance (UDA).
Sifuna’s challenges arise from his steadfast support for the Wantam narrative, which subtly advocates for a one-term presidency for Ruto, while he insists that ODM must maintain a robust opposition stance. This position has placed him at odds with the Senator Oburu Oginga-led faction of ODM, which has shown a willingness to engage with the Kenya Kwanza administration. The internal conflict reached a critical point during the NEC meeting that voted him out, further fracturing the Orange party.
Seizing the moment, opposition figures have acted swiftly. Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo, a close ally of Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, publicly invited Sifuna to join Wiper, a cornerstone of the United Opposition coalition. Maanzo praised the Nairobi senator’s resilience, asserting that his political journey is far from over. “Sifuna should not be concerned. As a member of the Azimio coalition, I invite him to transition from ODM to the Wiper party,” Maanzo stated, confidently predicting that Sifuna would easily retain his Senate seat.
Martha Karua, leader of the People’s Liberation Party, also weighed in, characterizing Sifuna as youthful, principled, and knowledgeable in governance. She commended his strong performance as ODM Secretary General and suggested that he would enhance any political formation he joins. While acknowledging Sifuna’s legal options to contest his removal, Karua hinted that his rising national profile could sharpen the opposition’s competitive edge as the 2027 elections approach.
From Gachagua’s Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), Embakasi North MP James Gakuya indicated that the United Opposition would readily welcome Sifuna’s camp. He argued that the fallout reveals fractures within ODM that could undermine the party’s capacity to offer unified support to Ruto. “No one will deliver the ODM party to William Ruto in full. There will be a faction led by Oburu that may easily endorse President Ruto, alongside another opposing camp,” Gakuya remarked. He maintained that if the dispute escalates to court, Sifuna would have a solid case, asserting his status as the legitimate Secretary General and custodian of party instruments. “Ultimately, the party will remain divided into two,” he concluded.
These statements reflect a broader strategy by the opposition to engage the so-called ODM Young Turks, including Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, whose combative style and urban appeal resonate with younger voters.
Behind the scenes, Kalonzo has reportedly been assigned to directly engage with Sifuna’s faction during coalition negotiations. Shortly after the news of Sifuna’s ousting broke, he shared a cryptic solidarity photo with the Nairobi senator, a gesture interpreted as a political signal.
However, Sifuna and his allies, led by Siaya Governor James Orengo, have dismissed the removal as irregular. They contend that the NEC’s decision violated party protocols and are determined to contest it while maintaining control from within.
Winning over Sifuna and his allies would inject new energy into the opposition’s urban base and strengthen its anti-Ruto messaging ahead of a potential two-horse race in 2027. Gachagua has already suggested flexibility in Nairobi through potential party zoning arrangements, signaling a willingness to collaborate with like-minded leaders.
Whether Sifuna ultimately chooses to fight within ODM or crosses party lines, his situation has become a crucial subplot in the nation’s opposition politics, serving as a test of who can best navigate a party embroiled in internal conflict.
